Chapter 14 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.”
Read MoreNational Narratives
Chapter 13 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” The U.S. is not the only country struggling with COVID challenges while promoting national narratives; Russia for example, denies even having COVID, well at least until they nominate their fearless leader for a …
Read MoreHerd Immunity
Chapter 12 in the R.M. Dolin book “Truth and Trust in Crisis.“ Herd Immunity occurs when a significantly large percentage of a population is exposed to contagion and the contagion dies out for lack of viable hosts and pathways for transmission.[1] A key premise of …
Read MoreQuarantines in Crisis
Chapter 11 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” Across the nation, states implemented varying levels of quarantine during the COVID crisis; first to stave off Armageddon Day on April 14th and then to slow the virus spread. As we move toward …
Read MoreLetting Actuaries Have Their Say
Chapter 10 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 We have been asserting with increasing confidence that CDC data is being manipulated and falsified, causing us to seek other sources of truth from agents we trust. One avenue we can pursue …
Read MorePost Pandemic Pandemics
Chapter 9 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” In early June of 2020, the CDC declares the American part of the global COVID crisis (i.e., our epidemic) is over. While this is fantastic news it comes with a cautionary caveat, namely, …
Read MoreThe Gestalt of Multiple Models
Chapter 6 from the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.“ May 5, 2020: Three weeks is like forever in a crisis, especially after considering all that’s been lost, including, our inherent trust in bureaucrats, academicians, the media, and medical professionals. The cumulative COVID …
Read MoreDeclaring the Crisis Over
Chapter 8 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 This chapter spans mid-May to mid-July in year one of our COVID crisis. We assess four expert models that made May and June projections, evaluate their performance relative to our model, and …
Read MoreThe Saint Petersburg Paradox
Chapter 7 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” 2021 May 7, 2020: Sometimes on a quite evening over Cuban contraband and homemade bourbon, I wonder how radicals like Vladimir Lenin and Leon Trotsky were able to overthrow the Russian monarchy and …
Read MoreDeduction versus Induction
Chapter 5 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” In computer modeling, one never gets the correct answer, however, we expect experts to at least be close in a crisis with so much at stake. For trusted experts to be off by …
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