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In early May, while federal and academic models were predicting the COVID crisis would carry into August, I boldly predicted the crisis would end on June 7th. Now here we are at my projected end date needing to assess my assertion against modeling experts, medical professionals, academia, politicians, and the media. Without giving too much away, I’ll point out that my predictions have been spot on since the crisis began and all those other “experts” have been consistently and wildly wrong.
Comparing COVID Models
The illustrious University of Washington, an academic institution in serious need of having it’s accreditation reviewed, predicts the COVID crisis carries into August and that during the month of June, 110,995 Americans will die from COVID, an average of 3,700 people per day. Meanwhile the scientific powerhouse that is the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, predicts 207,129 Americans die from COVID in June, or 6,904 people per day. Not to be outdone by academia, the federal FEMA model predicts 173,080 Americans will die from COVID in June, which is 5,770 people per day. One thing is very clear, the “experts” do not expect the COVID crisis to end anytime soon.
My simple first principles model, which we developed together and have applied to every COVID milestone since March, has consistently been spot on. My model predicts 22,500 Americans will die from COVID in June, or 750 people per day. As a benchmark, the current rolling seven day average is 1,015 deaths per day based on CDC data. When you factor in that the CDC overcounts by a minimum of 25%, the adjusted current death rate is 761, which means my model is once again spot on. While I correctly predicted the death rate curve would flatten to tails by June 7th, I did miss the mark on the tail’s plateau. I projected that the CDC would be down to just counting flu deaths by now, but the plateau seems to be stabilizing just below 750 deaths per day. Still though, my model comports with CDC data and validates the COVID crisis has abated.
CDC Confirms The Crisis Is Over
The plot above represents a hybrid of reported CDC data (blue and red curves), and my model projection (yellow curve). Since midApril my projection has consistently been validated by CDC data. At this point, the CDC data clearly verifies the crisis is over. For further validation look at the smooth descent down from the apex. If the red curve contained significant variability it could be argued the death rate is too erratic to declare the crisis over. But that is not the case.
While current protests consuming the country represent an unanticipated variable that could cause the red curve to spike. Evidence suggests that probably won’t happen. New COVID cases in Georgia are down 14% and new cases in Florida down 15%. Those were the first two lockdown states to reopen, if ending social distancing were going to cause spikes in COVID deaths, we’d be seeing it now. As additional evidence, the death rates in free states has been declining faster than death rates in lockdown states, but even hard hit New York City only reported 45 COVID deaths on Friday.
FYI: the CDC reported number of infections is a meaningless benchmark and should not be considered in your evaluation as to whether or not the crisis is over. The only value this metric has is tracking the number of people known to be infected who die, but even that is meaningless because you don’t know the true size of the infected population.
Actuarially the Crisis is Over
We have previously discussed that the only reasonable way to untangle the mess the medical community created by intentionally miscounting COVID deaths is to look at actuarial data. The number of Americans who were expected to die by June 7th this year is 1,242,783 (red columns in above table). The number of Americans who actually have died is 1,247,544 (blue columns). This means that 5,761 fewer Americans have died this year from something than was projected before the COVID crisis began. You can look at this statistic two ways, one is to conclude that putting people in lockdown saved more lives than COVID claimed and/or the medical profession along with the CDC are excessively overcounting COVID deaths. Either way, the actuarial data validates the crisis has abated.
Politically Paralysis Has Been Averted
The COVID crisis is as much political as epidemiological and the crisis cannot be declared over until politicians devise an exit strategy shielding their exposure to mismanagement. Forty-two states are now open, while predictably the most liberal states remain convinced they can thwart President Trump’s reelection by staying closed. There has not been a spike in COVID deaths in states that either remained open or reopened, which is further evidence the crisis is over.
In New York City, 450,000 people are returning to work tomorrow all at once. New York has not only been the hardest hit state, is has been the most draconian and cautious. Bringing so many workers back at once is an indication New York politicians know the crisis is over.
While no one could foresee current events back in midApril when I predicted the COVID crisis would end on June 7th, I did assert that catalysts would emerge, which has happened. Both political parties got the necessary cover they needed to divert attention away from their mismanagement of the COVID crisis. Republicans got the treason hearings in the Senate to intoxicate their base on the possibility the Obama administration will be found guilty of a failed coup. Democrats got the riots to remind their base who’s got their backs come November. Politically it’s the perfect storm both parties needed to close the crisis.
Medically The Crisis Has Gone Into Remission
The medical community has diagnosed the crisis and determined social justice matters more than social distancing. The medical community has declared the crisis over by prescribing the need of a small segment of society to protest and riot, trumps the rights of the larger population to remain safe. Along with this, their is growing evidence the coronavirus is attenuating to a point approaching being benign. Since in theory the medical profession follows an oath to “do no harm”, they could not have reached that assessment without knowing the crisis was in full remission. They have performed their postmortem autopsy and in their best medical opinion have concluded the crisis is over.
Media Can’t Make It Matter
The media has done it’s best to keep the COVID crisis going; sometimes on their own, and other times with the help of the medical, academic, and political professions. Members of media venues dutifully followed the profit models of their mentors, William Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer, who advocated for sensationalized journalism; even if you have to make stuff up (i.e., yellow journalism). But try as they did, the media couldn’t keep the ruse alive like their masters. The very nature of media’s exhausting attempts to scare us with increasingly absurd boogeymen is evidence the crisis has ended. One would like to believe there’s enough integrity left in journalism to factually keep us informed if there were a real crisis to report on, but instead, they’ve opted to jump the shark while nuking the fridge.
Citizens Are Taking Control of Their Manifest Destiny
The May jobs report was the best in our nation’s history. Pundits predicted 7 million jobs would be lost in May but instead, 2.5 million jobs were added back to the economy. The people have had enough of being scared and manipulated, as 80% of all small businesses are now reopened. The greatest fear any oligarchy has is open disobedience, so once Americans again taste the refreshing newness of freedom, state and federal politicians will quickly acquiesce.
Despite blue state governor’s attempts to stall recovery the will of the governed is being heard and American’s confidence is returning. As evidence, the stock market soared almost 1,000 points on Friday and is up several thousand points over the past couple weeks. American’s confidence is strong even in the face of ravaging riots.
Even my most liberal friend who proudly recounts his Berkeley protest days and today, like a good liberal, obediently follows every edict our liberal governor proclaims, has had enough. He now advocates we restart our poker game in defiance of the governor’s order prohibiting such gatherings. This from a guy who recently chastised people for having the unmitigated audacity to loiter outside our local bagel shop without wearing facemasks. The tide is turning and once the American people decide the crisis is over, there’s nothing misguided medical professionals, politically motivated governors, or misinformed media can do, the crisis will be over.
Today, based on analytical data, scientific analysis, and a logical assessment of the conclusions that can be drawn from the words, action, and deeds of politicians, medical professions, the media, and most importantly the American people, I hereby proclaim the COVID crisis is over.