A real-time analysis of the COVID crisis by R.M. Dolin, 2021
A nonfiction journey through the calamities of COVID following real science. Mark Twain popularized the expression “there are lies, damn lies, and statistics,” to emphasize the power of mathematics to auger through distortions of facts to reveal the truth. Truth and Trust in Crisis, follows an engineer’s efforts to put COVID into comprehensible context using simple math and responsible logic. The extraordinary way Dr. Dolin models with spot-on accuracy what experts consistently get wrong will cause you to believe he wrote Truth and Trust in Crisis after COVID using post-crisis clairvoyance, however, the book is based on 2020 essays submitted to major media during the crisis. As it becomes increasingly clear Americans were bamboozled, Dr. Dolin stands out as one of the few scientists who tired to inform the pubic of the truth, only no one in media had the curiosity or courage to publish opposition to prescribed narratives. In times of crisis, our lives depend on truthful data being used by trusted experts, but what happens when the data is obfuscated and the trustworthiness is suspect? The only way past the lies and damn lies of COVID is through the application of science, which really wasn’t all that hard but it does beg the question why it happened and what’s behind the crisis of truth and trust within the COVID crisis. READ BOOK, READ SUPPORTING ESSAYS.
Chapters
1. Truth and Trust - Data vs. information, quantitative vs. qualitative evidence, and the Smith-Mundt Act
2. Math and Models - Review of two academic models and science's fiduciary duty in the digital age
3. Flattening the Curve - Challenging Brix/Fauci assertions while determining if COVID's manmade
4. Advent of Armageddon - Our model is 10 times more accurate than federal and academic models
5. Deduction Versus Induction - Using logic to prove two COVID hypotheses
6. The Gestalt of Multiple Models - Developing five COVID models, each a piece of the information puzzle
7. The Saint Petersburg Paradox - The mathematics of expected utility theory
8. Declaring the Crisis Over - Using qualitative and quantitative evidence to declare the epidemic over
9. Our Post-Pandemic Pandemic - Concluding COVID's manmade while assessing crisis politics
10. Letting Actuaries Have Their Say - Creative way to assess COVID when CDC data is suspect
11. Quarantines In Crisis - History of quarantines and why proven policy is inverted during COVID
12. Herd Immunity - The science behind herd immunity and how it's implemented in Sweden
13. National Narratives - Contrasting American, Chinese, and Russian propaganda
14. Follow the Science: The Fallacy of Facemasks - A design of experiments for facemask efficacy
15. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics - CDC revises death data requiring trusted sources to validate truth
16. Vaccines à la Children of Thalidomide - Efficacy and ethicality of an untested vaccine
17. Why - A theory tying all COVID whys into a single explanation
18. Conclusion - Where do we go for truth and who can we trust - the crisis within the COVID crisis
