Chapter 13 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 Like most countries, the US struggles with how best to promote their COVID narrative; Russia for example, denies even having COVID, well at least until they nominate fearless leader for a Nobel …
Read MoreHerd Immunity
Chapter 12 in the R.M. Dolin book “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 Herd Immunity occurs when a significantly large percentage of a population is exposed to a contagion and the contagion dies out for lack of viable hosts and pathways for transmission.[1] A key …
Read MoreQuarantines in Crisis
Chapter 11 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” In response to COVID, states across the nation implement varying forms of quarantine; first to flatten the curve ahead of Armageddon Day on April 14th and then to slow virus spread. As we …
Read MoreLetting Actuaries Have Their Say
Chapter 10 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 We have asserted with increasing confidence that CDC data is being manipulated and falsified, causing us to seek other sources of truth from agents we trust. One such source is actuarial data; …
Read MoreOur Post Pandemic Pandemic
Chapter 9 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 CDC declares America’s part of the global COVID crisis ended in early June. While this is fantastic news it comes with a cautionary caveat, namely, deadly viruses can have second waves more …
Read MoreThe Gestalt of Multiple Models
Chapter 6 from the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 “Gestalt – The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” May 5, 2020: Three weeks is forever in a crisis, especially considering all that’s been lost, including, trust. The cumulative …
Read MoreDeclaring the Crisis Over
Chapter 8 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 Two timelines determine when the COVID crisis ends, one based on a CDC formula for endemic viruses and the other based on when its politically permissible. We previously calculated the crisis ends …
Read MoreThe Saint Petersburg Paradox
Chapter 7 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” 2021 May 7, 2020: On a quite evenings over Cuban contraband and homemade bourbon, I often ponder how radicals like Vladimir Lenin and Leon Trotsky were able to overthrow the Russian monarchy and …
Read MoreDeduction versus Induction
Chapter 5 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis,” 2021 Computer models never render correct answers, but we expect experts to at least be close in a crisis with so much at stake. For government and academia to be off by a …
Read MoreAdvent of Armageddon
Chapter 4 in the R.M. Dolin book, “Truth and Trust in Crisis.” 2021 On April 1st, the federal government asserts that in thirteen days the COVID crisis reaches its apex and begins to diminish. According to academic model projections, by the time the apex is …
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