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Have you notice the subtle way federal and state governments are exploiting fear to prepare you for lockdowns remaining in place unit August? The embarrassingly incompetent University of Washington now predicts 234,000 deaths by early August, which means that they project 164,252 more deaths in the next 85 days. Consider the plot above, where the blue curve represents CDC data for our ascent up to the apex of maximum death rate, and the red curve is CDC data for our descent down from the Apex to today. The yellow curve represents my projection for the death rate out to August 4th.
My analysis indicates that the crisis ends in early June. Can you objectively look at these curves and find any way to explain how the University of Washington gets to 164,252 more deaths or that the crisis extends into August? The answer is clearly no, which calls into question what’s going on. Given the consistent errors of academic and federal models thus far, it’s hard to argue against these folks really being that incompetent, but aside from that, what if something far more nefarious is afoot?
My analysis shows that by June 7th the rate of COVID deaths will equal the rate of annual flu deaths, at which point we need to seriously question what’s really behind a lockdown continuation?
It’s increasingly clear we’re in what I refer to as “political purgatory.” State governors know they panicked in the early days of the COVID crisis and then over-reacted and over-reached. But now their pride and hubris prohibits them from turning the economy back on so we can resume our normal lives. This is especially acute in states run by Democratic governors who panicked and over-reached the most. Did you know you’re more likely to die in a Democratic state than you are in a Republican state? Part of it is due to the fact that Democratic states have more densely packed urban areas, but it’s also true that they have sanctuary cities and are overrun with homelessness, which is a breeding ground for viruses and bacteria. Another reason is that people who live in Republican states predominately still know how to wipe their nose without the government holding their handkerchief.
The much touted University of Washington model, which has been incompetently wrong since the COVID crisis began, projects that 234,000 Americans will die from COVID by August 4th. President Trump more optimistically projects the number to be 100,000. My analysis shows that by June 7th the cumulative deaths will be 82,000, which while still horrible, is considerably lower than both projections.
I chose to truncate the curve in my projection on June 7th, because that’s when the COVID death rate reaches 85 deaths/day, which is equivalent to the number of Americans who die each day due to flu. Since the CDC stopped counting flu deaths to label all respiratory deaths as COVID, we can assume when the COVID death rate reaches 85 it is asymptotically zero.
The quandary left to muck through is do state and federal officials really believe the crisis will continue until August 4th, or do they know my analysis is once again spot on and are hoping they can convince us to remain in a manic panic when the crisis has clearly abated? I believe it is the later, but the riddle is why?
The CDC and the University of Washington have a history of being wrong with an agenda, and their estimate of another 164,252 deaths between now and early August does not comport with evidence so appears to be an effort to scare us into compliance. President Trump has been against lockdown from the start and is eager to restart the economy and return to normalcy. His projection of another 21,000 deaths between now and early August is dire, but at least not laced in mania. My projection is that less than 5,000 will die between now an early June.
So if President Trump is on one side calling for an end to the lockdown, while his political opponents are on the side arguing to extend the lockdown, what does that tell you? Yes boys and girls, COVID quit being a medical crisis around mid April and has since devolved into a political crisis – a politically driven constitutional crisis made possible by an overtly complacent public. But beyond that, is there something more nefarious afoot? Why do state and federal governments want us cowering in fear when the reason for fear is abated? I believe peeling that onion is the real mystery wrapped in an enigma.