Quarantine Day 34: Deduction versus Induction

Fauci, Brix, and the University of Washington Either knowingly Lie or are Absurdly Incompetent

To see other COVID posts, visit my Quarantine blog.

Aristotle is credited for developing the philosophy of logic. He primarily focused his work on the logic of deduction, but recognized there was a competing logic, which he called induction.

Deduction is a method of reasoning that goes from the general to the specific. In deductive logic, a conclusion is necessarily based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. An example would be the one attributed to Newton; “Gravity acts on all objects (general premise). An apple hit my head due to gravity (specific conclusion). Deduction is the basis of science for things that can be demonstrated (i.e., proven).

Induction is a method of reasoning where a set of premises support a conclusion but don’t necessitate it. Inductive logic moves from particulars to their generalizations. An example of inductive logic is; “My son’s school starts at 8:00. My daughter’s school started at 8:00 (specific premise). Therefore, all schools start at 8:00 (general conclusion). Induction is the basis of science for things that are indemonstrable (i.e., not necessarily proven).

You’re probably wondering what this has to do with my assertion that Drs Fauci, and Brix, and the University of Washington either knowing lie or are absurdly incompetent. Well, to present my argument from assertion to conclusion, I had to define the two approaches we’ll be traversing. We begin with two hypotheses;

  1. Drs Fauci and Brix, and the University of Washington knowing lie.
  2. Drs Fauci and Brix, and the University of Washington are absurdly incompetent.

General Premises for Deduction

  1. Unsubstantiated claims by Fuaci, Brix, and UW lead to government panic and overreach.
  2. Flattening the curve, was never meant to reduce infections or deaths, only spread them out to not overwhelm healthcare system.
  3. In nature, the rate of growth or expansion of most things, including pandemics, follow an exponential growth curve.
  4. It is incumbent on academicians, to ground their work in first principles and to allow that work to be peer reviewed prior to promoting results.
  5. Actuarial data can be used at the end of the year to estimate impact of COVID on annual death rates in the U. S.

Hypothesis Testing Using Method of Deduction – General to Specific

Deduction can be used to demonstrate the two hypotheses are true

  1. Drs Fauci and Brix, and the University of Washington knowing lie.
    • Initially Fauci and Brix used UW models to assert that the goal of social distancing was to “flatten the curve” so the healthcare system would not be overwhelmed. Later they used UW models claim the reason their earlier projections about the number of deaths that would occur were high was because their social distancing measures were working. These two assertions contradict each other, which can only happen if they’re lying.
    • At the end of the year we can subtract the number of people who were estimated to die in 2020 from the number of people who did die and get a good estimate on the impact of COVID.
  2. Drs Fauci and Brix, and the University of Washington are absurdly incompetent.
    • Federal and state governments used model information to enact strong measures. They either had to know the model information has wrong or were too incompetent to know.
    • To date I have not seen a single peer review of federal or academic models but we know their projections have been off by a factor or ten.

Specific Premises for Induction

  1. The U. S. cost of the coronavirus will be $5 trillion.
  2. NIH and CDC directed doctors to attribute deaths to coronavirus.
  3. Medicare pays hospitals $39,000 to treat COVID patients but only $13,000 to treat flu patients.
  4. Dr. Brix admits on April 8th that the U. S. is the only country intentionally overcounting COVID deaths.
  5. New York officials admit to overcounting COVID deaths by 57%.
  6. Numerical models are always wrong, which is why first principle validation should always be done to bound expected outcomes.

Hypothesis Testing Using Method of Induction

  1. Drs Fauci and Brix, and the University of Washington knowing lie.
    • Federal and state governments used model information to close down the economy costing the U.S. $5T. They had to either know the model information has wrong or were too incompetent to understand how out of bounds there were first principles projections.
    • The government pressured medical doctors to overcount COVID deaths and then provided financial inducement.
    • Brix openly admits to fudging numbers, as do New York government officials.
  2. Drs Fauci and Brix, and the University of Washington are absurdly incompetent.
    • Second year students in science are taught the fallacies of relying on numerical models in decision making, they are always wrong.

Comments

  1. Ron, in the past I have used the cause and effect vs correlation to also make the argument. Example, did the coronavirus cause the cost to be $5T or did the panic caused by Fauci, etc. cause to cost to be $5T? The correlation between the coronavirus and $5T does not necessarily mean cause and effect. Great job as usual.

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