Quarantine Day 32: Follow the Money

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With shock and amazement, the mainstream media seems to have awoken to the three fundamental truths of this COIVD crisis we have been reporting on for weeks

  1. The Virus is manmade
  2. There is widespread overcounting of COVID deaths
  3. Federal and state experts are consistently wrong

On March 24th, I laid out a logical argument for why the virus is probably manmade. I suggested that the COVID virus was behaving in an unnatural way and that eventually experts would prove the virus was man made. I commend both the government and media for finally pursuing this line of investigation. I understand the government’s reticence; how do we prove on the one hand that China created this virus while on the other hand not declare war on China? It is a diplomatic razor’s edge that President Trump has to balance. The media though, should have no compunction about pursuing this investigation and I wish them well. There’s a Pulitzer waiting for someone able to objectively parse through the data.

On March 31st, I applied Darwin’s Theory of evolution to argue that natural viruses attenuate in order to survive but the coronavirus was not attenuating at an expected rate. That alone should have tipped off scientific reporters. When you couple that with widely known information about the Wuhan biolab working on dangerous coronaviruses, the 2018 UN report outlining concerns about biolab safety in Wuhan, along with the fact that the Wuhan wet market doesn’t sell bats, even a first year reporter should be able to connect the dots.

On March 29th I gave a mathematical argument showing the extent to which repressive countries such as China and Russia were under-reporting their COVID death counts. At that time I credited the U. S. for accurately reporting their numbers, but that was before Congress financially incentivized doctors to label any death as COVID related. Now it’s being reported by the NY Times, Bloomberg, and Fox New that New York is over-reporting by as much as 57%, something I first reported on April 10th when I described how doctors were being pressured to inflate their numbers.

On April 15, I applied actuarial analysis to provide an assessment of the impact of COVID on the overall number of people who will die in 2020. I argued that at the end of the year the overall number of people who died in 2020 will not be in dispute but that we will never know the true number of people who died from COVID due to over counting. Not knowing the true COVID count is not unprecedented, during the Spanish Flu pandemic the estimated range of virus caused deaths is between 50M and 100M. That is a huge range which is unlikely to repeat itself for COVID crisis.

What we can however do at the end of the year is use actuarial tables to estimate how many Americans were going to die from something in 2020 and compare that to the number of Americans who actually did die. From there we can assert that the delta is COVID caused and assess the extent to which we were mislead.

On April 1st, I began using a simple mathematical expression and first principles analysis to question the validity of federal and academic models and their dire predictions. While my simple predictions were off by a factor of 0.33, expert predictions were off by a factor of 10. On April 10th, I reported on the U.S. being the only nation that was intentionally over reporting their COVID death count and speculated it was in an attempt to validate their erroneous models. At that time I was not accounting for Congress’s unintended consequence of financially incentivizing doctors to skew their numbers.

To President Trump who has, with measured diplomacy, called China out for unleashing this deadly pandemic on the world while not boxing us into a corner where the only way out is war, I say thank you. To the media who is now awoken to the true realities of this crisis I say, welcome to the struggle and I look forward to your assessments. My advise is to follow the data and resist the temptation to sensationalize your findings.

Today’s Charts: Well they are what they are and since we can’t trust CDC data, what value can we put in the charts? That being said, we have no alternative so let’s look at what the data is telling us. First, the U. S. death count really shot up, but we can blame New York for overcounting by 57%. You can see that the global death count also shot up, but that’s in large part due to the U. S. overcounting. Since I don’t believe there’s a financial incentive to overcount the number of infections, that provides a better basis. Even there though, the numbers are up today but overall we’re still on a global and national downward trajectory; and that’s a positive piece of news.

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