March 25, 2020
The reference data used in the table is from the 2017 influenza outbreak, considered one of the worst in recent history. Even though the number of deaths were significantly higher that flu season compared to the current ?Coronavirus outbreak, the chances for recovery once infected were far greater. To keep the current Coronavirus in perspective, it’s useful to note that the global death rate for the 2003 SARS outbreak was 7% while it was 35% for the 2015 MERS outbreak. However, both SARS and MERS were contained, only 8,098 people got sick with SARS while MERS experienced only 2,494 infections.
Conversely, the Spanish Flu of 1917, considered the worst pandemic in history, killed between 50 to 100 million while having a death rate of only 2%. While the 2% death rate for the Spanish Flu is smaller than the global death rate for the current Chinese Virus, the number of infections during the Spanish Flu outbreak were significantly higher. The reason the estimated death rate is boxed in such a large range is because the world was in the midst of WWI that year and global record keeping was not so good.
This suggests that while it is important to monitor the fluctuating death rate for the Cornoavirus, that statistic is just one parameter in the overall equation for concern, the other important parameter is the rate in which people are becoming infected.
As the table indicates, the US is fairing better than the collective world with respect to death rates. However, what’s being under-reported is that globally only 0.006% of the world population has been infected thus far while in the United States, 0.019% of the population has been infected. In other words, the US is running at a rate three times higher than the rest of the world, which is drastically different from the sunshine and daises the government and media are reporting. Another important measure being underreported is that the US death rate for the Coronavirus is currently less than the US death rate for the 2017 flu season. While the infection rates seems to support the widespread panic we see in federal and state governments, the death rates seem to suggest that panic may be a bit premature.
While New Mexico records it’s first Coronavirus death, data for New Mexico is insufficient for any statistical inference….and let’s hope it stays that way. On a very positive note for the land of enchantment, our infection rate is way below both global and national infection rates, which begs the question regarding our governor’s overreaction and overreach – see earlier post regarding her ongoing VP audition.
NOTE: When looking at Coronavirus statistics, keep in mind that large ranges exist now as they did during the 1917 Spanish Flu pandemic. Now though, instead of war and poor recordkeeping, the world is plagued with countries who do not truthfully report. Russia and Belarus blatantly lie about there numbers because, well because they are dictatorships and can’t risk unrest and lying is such a way of life it just comes naturally. China lies about their numbers to avoid responsibility and Iran can’ t seem to distinguish the masses dying from Coronavirus and their ongoing alcohol poisoning epidemic.