CDC Confirms Dr. Dolin’s COVID Fatality Projections

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On May 13th, when the official CDC COVID death count was at 81,805 and rising rapidly, I made the rather outrageous assertion that the actual number of deaths in the U.S. caused by COVID was far below what the CDC reported and closer to 4,354. Rather than consider the legitimacy of my analysis though, I was mocked and ridiculed, the media refused to print my conclusions, and the American Medical Association (AMA) rejected my submission, even though I provided convincing evidence along with a logically cogent basis for how I arrived at my assertion. Some of my detractors went so far as to accuse me of living in an alternative reality, of carrying President Trump’s water, and of being yet another right wing conspiracy kook.

While some may think I’m a bit odd, I like to believe I live in the world of hard objective facts grounded in solid science and an unbiased understanding of where truth ends and the fictional worlds created by politicians and the media begins. In previous posts and commentaries I have never felt the need to defend or support President Trump, he does just fine on his own and doesn’t need me to muddy his message. And for the record, I am not a Republican, rather I’m a registered Independent who is just as likely to lean left on an issue as right. Finally, and this is the important part, I’m a man of science trained to logically deduce information and circumstances to arrive at my own conclusions. I don’t need nonscientific medical doctors, biased media, or ethically challenged politicians telling me what to think or believe.

The simple truth, as I have been presenting since April, is that the COVID crisis was never a crisis. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t real. Was COVID a serious contagion that needed to be promptly and properly addressed? Yes. Were people dying from COVID? Yes. Was the government right to quickly close the border and help us prepare for the worst? Yes. At the same time, was there a overreaction by some states? Yes. Was the media complicit in exasperating the situation to a level of hysteria? Yes. Did the CDC overcount COVID deaths? Yes. Was it a cataclysmic mistake of epic proportions to shut down our economy and quarantine our population? Yes. Was the entire facemask fiasco an unnecessary effort in population control that was ineffective in preventing the virus spread? Absolutely.

And now this, the sweetest of all things to a scientist who boldly stands alone against his critics, who believes in his math, his logic, and his conclusions; the sweetest of all things, vindication. Last week the CDC, following their Italian and the British counterparts, confirmed the actual death count due to COVID is substantially lower than previously reported. By finally acknowledging that there is a difference between dying with COVID and dying from COVID, the CDC concluded that the actual number of Americans who died from COVID was only 6% of the 161,392 being reported. In other words, and brace yourself if you’ve drunk the COVID crisis Koolaid, only approximately 9,683 have died in the U.S. from coronavirus – “sacrebleu” right? (to borrow from Agatha Christie’s fictional character Detective Poirot) While this is a large and unfortunate number, it is significantly lower than the media hysteria would lead you to believe and most would agree that had the nation known this was the real impact of COVID the appropriate response would have been much different.

Recall for a moment the COVID conditions back in mid-May and the panicked state of siege that consumed the country. At that time, the official CDC COVID death count was 81,805. That’s when my analysis led me to conclude the real number of COVID deaths was 4,354, which equates to 5.3% of the reported CDC number. At this time, no one was questioning the integrity of CDC reporting, but I was busy posting multiple blogs on the subject. Last week’s CDC’s mea culpa confirms that my mid-May assertion was pretty much spot on. In other words, while my many detractors mocked my conclusion and ridiculed my results, I stood alone in the scientific community with a highly improbably but mathematically accurate assertion.

There is really only one thing left to say to my detractors, which I now share with honest and humble sincerity: in the future, quit letting untrained medical doctors, biased media, and corrupt politicians tell you what to think. Instead listen to real scientists who are tirelessly trying to help you learn how to think.

And consider this next time you attack someone you don’t agree with, when marginal people struggle with facts or comprehension, they challenge ideas through insults and personal attacks. Meanwhile, thoughtful discourse challenges opposing viewpoints through deliberative questioning. For example, to say you oppose President Trump’s economic policies because a research paper you respect indicates his approach has failed in the past is respectful discourse. However, to argue that you oppose the President because he’s a misogynistic raciest (as the left constantly does devoid of evidence), only demonstrates your overall ignorance of facts and inability to challenge opposing ideas through intellectual debate.

Oh and one last comment for my detractors, “stick it!”