COVID Day 70: Tracking on Target

For other COVID posts, visit my Quarantine blog.

We reached a noteworthy milestone today as the CDC daily death count was down to 513. This marks the second lowest daily tally since the COVID apex on April 16th. The lowest daily death count occurred on May 12th, at 407, however, that low was bounded on both sides by numbers exceeding 2,000 deaths per day. In contrast, today’s low is part of an ongoing trend.

This week also saw the lowest seven day running average since the apex. We have gone from a high of 2,579 deaths per day in April to this week’s low of 1,034 deaths per day. As the plot above indicates, we are currently on a steady descent from the apex even though the rate of decent is slowing, which is to be expected as we drift into the tail region of the curve.

For the past several weeks I have been predicting the COVID crisis would be over by June 7th. I define “crisis over,” to be when the CDC reported COVID death rate drops below the average daily death rate for the annual flu because the CDC counts all respiratory deaths as COVID caused. Indications are that we’re on track to achieve this state in early June.

By contrast, the prestigious Wharton School of Business, whose illustrious alumni include President Trump, predicts an average death rate of 4,007 per day in June. Meanwhile the much referenced University of Washington COVID model predicts an average of 2,336 people die each day in June. I’m projecting the death rate continues to decline below todays rate of 513 until reaching the death rate of the annual flu.

I concede that my model will likely end up underestimating what actual happens in the next two weeks, but feel confident my simple first principles approach to modeling this COVID crisis will wind up being orders of magnitude closer to reality than the highly touted academic models. I consistently share my analysis with media outlets with little success, unfortunately my conclusions don’t support the narrative many state governments and members of the media want to promulgate.


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